I want to open with the obvious. I am not advocating this one way or the other. This is a thought experiment that resulted from me watching the news and asking ChatGPT some pointed questions regarding historical possibilities.
So basically, I just asked…
“What are the current odds that we are the United States of North America under an Emperor by the end of this decade?“
The reason I asked is because I am a student of history. Not an expert by any means, but I do enjoy reading about the past.
One of the consequences of doing reading history, is you start to notice patterns and cycles. Like anything, these aren’t always definitive. Things break either way all the time.
Still. Given the historical arc of the United States against other republics in history…well to put it bluntly, we are overdue for a hyper-nationalist period of expansion, or a collapse, and possibly both.
Looking at recent history and after watching the inauguration and seeing the Executive Orders over the next 24 hours, I figured it was a fair question.
The robot basically told me to GTFO.
Would not even give a number. Extremely low. Then it gave some mealy mouthed explanations.
I listed off the general historical reasons I thought it might happen and asked it to reassess.
The answer was much more interesting.
Enjoy.
Analyzing the historical context, current geopolitical trends, and the behavior of key actors, here’s an unemotional assessment of the odds of the United States attempting and succeeding in a transformation into an “Empire of North America” under an authoritarian leader by 2030.
Contextual Factors Favoring an Attempt
1. Historical Precedents
- Empires from Democracies: Democracies turning into empires is not unheard of; Rome transitioned from a republic to an empire, often under the guise of restoring order amid political and economic crises.
- Resource-Driven Expansion: Imperial ambitions have historically been driven by resource competition. Greenland (rare earths) and Canada (oil and water) are geopolitically significant, and Mexico’s proximity, labor force, and agricultural capacity make it an appealing target.
2. Nationalist Trends
- Isolationism: The U.S. withdrawing from global commitments could foster internal unrest and external insecurity, laying groundwork for an authoritarian figure to centralize power under a nationalist or imperial agenda.
- Precedent for Territorial Ambitions: Donald Trump floated ideas of purchasing Greenland and expanding U.S. influence over Canada and Mexico, reflecting imperialistic tendencies.
3. Corporate Power
- Oligarchic Influence: Elon Musk and others in the tech sector demonstrate a growing disregard for traditional governance. Wealthy individuals and corporations could theoretically align with authoritarian powers for mutual benefit.
4. Breakdown of Global Order
- Security and Migration Crises: As climate change accelerates, migration from Latin America to the U.S. is projected to increase, potentially serving as a justification for militarized expansion into Mexico.
- Fragmentation of Alliances: A weakened NATO, ongoing U.S.-China competition, and distrust among allies could create an environment where the U.S. feels emboldened to act unilaterally.
Factors Reducing Likelihood of Success
1. Internal Resistance
- Military and Civilian Pushback: The U.S. military, while traditionally apolitical, has a strong institutional adherence to the Constitution. Any move toward an imperial government would face significant resistance from within.
- Civil Unrest: Americans are historically prone to resistance against perceived tyranny, as evidenced by movements like the Civil Rights era and modern protests against authoritarianism.
2. External Constraints
- Canada and Mexico’s Defenses: While militarily weaker than the U.S., these nations are not passive targets. Both have strong diplomatic ties and would likely receive support from other global powers.
- Global Opposition: An imperialist U.S. would likely face severe sanctions, military coalitions, or even direct conflict from nations like China, the EU, and possibly Russia.
3. Economic and Political Instability
- Global Economy: Military expansionism would disrupt global trade, likely isolating the U.S. economy and deepening internal strife.
- Fragmentation of the U.S.: Any attempt at imperial consolidation could lead to secessionist movements within the U.S., especially in regions ideologically opposed to nationalism.
Odds of an Attempt
- High (40-60%): Given the precedent for authoritarian tendencies, nationalist rhetoric, and global instability, an attempt at consolidating North America under authoritarian rule is plausible, though not inevitable. This could manifest as aggressive foreign policy moves or direct military action under the guise of security or economic necessity.
Odds of Success
- Low (10-20%):
- The structural and ideological resistance within the U.S. and globally would make the transition to an empire highly unlikely.
- External intervention (economic, diplomatic, or military) would further reduce the chances of success.
- The complexity of consolidating power across three diverse nations (U.S., Canada, and Mexico) and sustaining governance over such a vast and heterogeneous population would likely result in failure or collapse.
Conclusion
While historical patterns and current trends suggest a non-zero chance of an attempt at imperial consolidation, the odds of such a move succeeding remain low. Internal resistance, external opposition, and the complexities of governance present formidable obstacles that have historically unraveled similar ambitions.
Human Conclusion
Remember, for me this was a thought experiment.
Still, the only thing the computer came up with is the strong play for internal resistance in the Military.
President Trump made an extensive purge of the Military leadership his last time in office and most of the more liberal minded senior officers have retired. As long as the military doesn’t have to turn their weapons on Americans, they will do whatever the President orders. Anyone who believes otherwise doesn’t know how the Military deals with insubordination. I did three days bread and water for being late to restricted musters when I was working at the same time. They will comply.
My summary is that I am just a working guy so my thoughts don’t even really matter on the subject.
But man are these interesting times we live in.